The Invasion of Zika Virus into Rio De Janeiro and Fortaleza, Brazil, Inside Out or Outside In? - Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKAV) is a global emerging infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes, blood and through sex. The disease is devastating to unborn children, children born with microcephaly, and their families. The Bioagent Transport and Environmental Modeling System (BioTEMS) has been used to model biological agents with potential for use as weapons of mass destruction as well as other infectious diseases and to optimize surveillance sites of these pathogens. Recently BioTEMS has been used to model ZIKAV invasion in Miami and Tampa, Florida, USA. Several models have been developed to identify the possible geographic range of ZIKAV and competent vector species, particularly Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Sometimes these models present conflicting results to how ZIKAV first invades and then spreads in a region. BioTEMS was used to analyze the movement of ZIKAV in two cities in Brazil, Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza and compare two published models. BioTEMS identified the source of invasion in the port areas in Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza and spreading outward. There appear to have been multiple invasions of ZIKAV into Brazil through ports with subsequent spreading outward from the sources of introduction.