Accounting and Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in Nine Provinces of the Yellow River Basin Based on a System Dynamics Model - Abstract
As the Yellow River Basin is an important region for China’s future economic development and environmental protection, the relevant provinces and regions are under relatively high pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and exploring carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. This paper accounts for land use carbon emissions and carbon footprint indices, etc., based on 1990-2018 panel data, and constructs a system dynamics prediction model to explore and predict the change pattern of land use carbon emissions through land use, population, energy and economic data. The results show that: (1) Net carbon emissions in the study area have shown an upward trend over the last 30 years. The carbon footprint pressure index and carbon emission risk index show a simultaneous increasing trend. (2) Grey correlation analysis shows that the influence of each land type on net carbon emissions in the study area is in the following order: construction land > water area > forest land > cropland > unused land > grassland. (3) Using a system dynamics model, scenario prediction and simulation were conducted on the research area. By 2035, the projected net carbon emissions (cumulative) will be 280.4 million tons under the existing development pattern; 230.7 million tons under the ecological priority development scenario; 280.4 million tons under the status quo continuation development scenario; and 356.1 million tons under the high economic development scenario in the study area.