Diagnostic Accuracy of a Mathematical Model to Predict Apnea-Hypopnea Index using Nighttime Pulse Oximetry - Abstract
Purpose: The intent of this study is to develop a predictive model to convert an oxygen desaturation index (ODI) to an apnea and hypopnea index (AHI). This model will then be compared to actual AHI to determine its precision.
Methods: 1467 subjects given polysomnograms with concurrent pulse oximetry between April 14, 2010 and February 7, 2012, were divided into model development (n=733) and verification groups (n=734) in order to develop a predictive model of AHI using ODI. Quadratic regression was used for model development.
Results: The coefficient of determination (r2) between the actual AHI and the predicted AHI (PredAHI) was 0.80 (r=0.90), which was significant at a p<0.001. The areas under the ROC curve ranged from 0.96 for AHI thresholds of ?10 and ?15/hr. to 0.97 for thresholds of ?5 and ?30/hr.
Conclusions: The algorithm described in this paper provides a convenient and accurate way to convert ODI to a predicted AHI. This tool makes it easier for clinicians to understand oximetry data in the context of traditional measures of sleep apnea.